Pre-market News Summary
Macro:
The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% to 5.00%, exceeding market expectations. This marks the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in four years. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that there is nothing in the Fed's economic projections that suggests a rush to complete rate cuts. Data will drive the choices of monetary policy, with rate cuts to be accelerated, slowed down, or paused as needed; the Fed is not in any preset mode and will continue to make decisions meeting by meeting; no one should consider a 50 basis point rate cut as the new pace. After the interest rate decision, U.S. stocks and gold surged and then fell back, ending slightly lower, while U.S. Treasury yields initially declined and then rose, and the dollar's losses narrowed.
Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to study measures to promote the development of venture capital. The meeting pointed out the need to quickly unblock the bottlenecks in the "raising, investing, managing, and exiting" stages, support符合条件的 technology companies to go public domestically and abroad, vigorously develop equity transfer and merger and acquisition markets, promote the trial of physical distribution of stocks, and encourage social capital to establish market-oriented merger and acquisition mother funds or secondary market funds for venture capital. Efforts should be made to promote state capital to become more responsible long-term and patient capital, and to improve policies and measures related to state capital investment, assessment, tolerance for errors, and exit. Key measures for capital market reform should be implemented to improve the functions of the capital market.
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The U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell by 14 basis points to 6.15% last week, the lowest level since September 2022. U.S. new home construction in August rose to 1.356 million units, the highest since April; building permits rose to 1.475 million units, the highest level in six months.
U.S. stocks fluctuated wildly, with all three major indices closing lower, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.25%, the S&P 500 down 0.29%, and the Nasdaq down 0.31%.
International oil prices fell across the board, with the November U.S. crude oil contract down 1.16%,报价 at $69.15 a barrel. The November Brent crude oil contract fell 1.27%,报价 at $72.08 a barrel. International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.29% at $2,584.8 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures down 1.84% at $30.41 per ounce.
Industry:
The Chinese Institute of Certified Public Accountants released a draft for comments, proposing to extract the independence requirements for certified public accountants from the professional ethics code to form a separate independence standard. The document proposes that if an accounting firm's fees from a single client exceed 30% of its total for five consecutive years, it should be reviewed by another accounting firm.
According to estimates by the Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, 107 million domestic trips were made nationwide, a 6.3% increase compared to the same period in 2019; the total expenditure on domestic tourism was 51.047 billion yuan, an 8% increase compared to the same period in 2019.Company:
BlackRock, one of the world's largest asset management groups, in collaboration with tech giant Microsoft, plans to launch a $30 billion AI (Artificial Intelligence) infrastructure fund.
II. Forward Look
9.20 - September LPR
III. Public Opinion Hotspots
Lithography Machines - Milestone! The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promotes domestic DUV lithography machines with overlay ≤8nm; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's micro-report introduces that China's first set of major technical equipment refers to significant technological breakthroughs achieved domestically, with the emergence of argon fluoride lithography machines and krypton fluoride lithography machines in the integrated circuit equipment sector, both of which belong to DUV lithography machines. Hot
Huawei Chain - Huawei's pure HarmonyOS NEXT is set to release its official version at the end of September; Huawei's Connect Conference is held in Shanghai from September 19th to 21st, 2024.
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Restructuring - From the China Securities Regulatory Commission, under the support of multiple policies, China's capital market M&A restructuring is entering an "active period". Data shows that since May 2024, A-share listed companies have disclosed 46 major asset restructuring projects, and 7 share issuance type reorganizations have been submitted to the China Securities Regulatory Commission for registration. Hot

Artificial Intelligence - OpenAI releases the latest o1 model, which significantly enhances the inference capabilities compared to the GPT-4 series models. Microsoft launches Copilot Wave2, ushering in a new workflow in the AI era. Hot
Real Estate Chain - National Bureau of Statistics: In the first eight months, national real estate development investment同比下降10.2%; the Federal Reserve significantly cuts interest rates by 50BP, and the central bank is expected to follow suit with a rate cut. HotIV. Hot Research Reports and Minutes
1. Key Strategic Operations in the Next 2 Days
[Opinion]
Domestic "deflation" accelerates, and the asset side deteriorates. Maintaining a significant rebound of more than 50bp in the 5-year LPR on the holding side, the "market bottom" will only appear.
"Right-side trading rate cut logic":
① If there is a 25bp domestic rate cut in September, it is expected that the A-share market will usher in at least a 1-month rebound "safe period"; it is still necessary to wait for another 25bp cut in October for the upward trend to be confirmed by the "hard landing" of the US economy (approximately after November).
② If there is a 50bp domestic rate cut in September, it is expected that the A-share market will usher in at least a 1-quarter rebound "safe period" until the risk of a "hard landing" in the US economy is confirmed and even spreads.
③ If a 25bp rate cut in September corresponds to investment style: switching from high-value, banks to small and medium-sized, oversold, undervalued, and those that meet the expectation of currency appreciation "growth and consumption", the switch position can be more than half; if the rate cut in September is as high as more than 50bp, the above can be fully switched to "attack".
④ If there is no rate cut in September or less than 25bp, market volatility may enter an "accelerating upward" channel, maintaining a "gold + innovative drugs" bottom position, and banks