Every time the real estate market receives significant favorable news, China Communications Construction Real Estate (CCC Real Estate) is sure to be hyped up.
This round is no exception.
On September 18th, the Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut since March 2020, lowering rates by 50 basis points.
This was interpreted by the market as "the next step may involve reducing the LPR and existing mortgage loan rates, which will stimulate housing consumption."
Sure enough, on September 24th, the central bank announced a reduction in existing mortgage loan rates, with an expected average decrease of around 0.5 percentage points.
Spurred by this, CCC Real Estate (000736.SZ) opened with a limit-up price and closed with a volume increase of over 7%. The total transaction amount for the day was 1.516 billion yuan, marking the highest volume since August 4, 2023.
In fact, prior to this, CCC had already achieved 3 board hits in 5 days.
In just 6 trading days, the increase was 54.31%.
First round
CCC being hyped up by market funds like this has already been:For the third time.
In March 2022, the real estate policy front was continuously blowing warm winds, including the temporary suspension of the pilot work for real estate tax and the reduction of mortgage interest rates in various places. Superimposed on the real estate sector's deep adjustment for 20 months, the Shenwan secondary real estate development sector index fell from 5530.59 points on July 7, 2020, to 3234.34 points on March 16, 2022, a drop of 41.52%.
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The real estate sector began to counterattack, and a wave of deep falls and rebounds emerged.
During this period, the first real estate stock of 2022 was born:
From March 16, 2022, to May 12, 2022, Zhongjiao Real Estate's stock price rose by more than 4 times, with the maximum increase in the period reaching 403.98%, and the stock price once rose from 6 yuan to 31 yuan, which was simply too outrageous.
At that time, some analysts confidently stated, "As a state-owned enterprise, the company has a strong financial advantage in the low operation of land prices, and it is beneficial to reserve high-quality land reserves with strong profitability, which is conducive to achieving a rebound in profit margins in the future."
If you really believed it at that time, you would be stunned later.
After that, it was a long half-year decline, and the stock price once fell to around 10 yuan.
The reason for the decline is nothing more than the scramble to sell by major shareholders, institutions, and speculative capital.
From December 2021 to November 2022, the second-largest shareholder Chongqing Yu Fu reduced its holdings by 3.46% through concentrated bidding, cashing out 286 million yuan;From January 2022 to October 2022, the third shareholder, Hunan Huaxia, reduced its holdings by the same method, selling 1.18% and cashing out 95.613.7 million yuan;
Subsequently, the controlling shareholder, China Communications Group, could no longer contain itself and joined the ranks of those reducing their holdings. From May 2022 to August 2022, it reduced its holdings by 1%, with a total reduction amount of 132 million yuan.
In this case, the average reduction price of China Communications Group was close to 19 yuan (18.98 yuan per share), which was significantly higher than that of Chongqing Yu Fu and Hunan Huaxia.
Absolutely a master!
The second round
On November 23, 2022, the Central Bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the "Real Estate 16 Articles"; on the evening of the 28th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission decided to resume refinancing for listed real estate companies and companies related to real estate, which was interpreted by the industry as firing the "third arrow" to support real estate company financing.
Such favorable news once again ignited the real estate sector that had been silent for half a year.
China Communications Real Estate was also sought after by funds again, from November 24, 2022, to December 1, it achieved a "six consecutive board", with a cumulative increase of 77.18%, and the stock price returned to above 20 yuan (the highest was 22.51 yuan per share).
However, after this round of speculation, China Communications Real Estate started a one-way downtrend that lasted for 21 months.On August 29th of this year, it once reached a low point of 6.76 yuan per share, playing a role of "returning to where it came from."

It is worth noting that Chongqing Yu Fu instinctively seized the opportunity, not giving up any high-priced "sell, sell, sell."
From December 2022 to June 2023, it sold 1.54% at a price of 17.01 yuan per share, cashing out 182 million yuan;
From June 2023 to December 2023, it sold 0.69% at a price of 10.59 yuan per share, cashing out 50.4751 million yuan.
The speed of retreat is too fast
When it comes to the "dark horses" in the real estate circle in recent years, Binjiang and Yuexiu are the ones.
After this round of major reshuffling in the real estate industry, Binjiang and Yuexiu have surpassed China Jinmao in scale. In the past two years, they have been firmly in the top 15 of Chinese real estate companies in sales.
It is important to know that in 2020, the two companies' operating amounts were still ranked outside the top 30.
"It's not that we are fierce, it's that the speed at which others retreat is faster than us," said Qi Jinxing, chairman of Binjiang.
In just one short sentence, it revealed the truth of "the survivor is the king."As a member of the "leftovers," the quality of China Communications Real Estate is far inferior to Binjiang and Yuexiu.
As the only A-share real estate listing platform under China Communications Group, China Communications Real Estate has also experienced a leap in scale. In just two years, it achieved a sales scale leap from 1 billion yuan to 10 billion yuan.
After the scale of 10 billion yuan, it took another 3 years to reach 50 billion yuan. In 2021, it further topped 56 billion yuan.
However, the momentum was not maintained afterward.
In the past two years, the signed sales amount of China Communications has continued to decline. By 2023, it was less than 40 billion yuan.
In the first half of this year, the signed sales amount shrank even faster, only 8.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of:
62.26%.
Further down the line, China Communications Real Estate fell into a huge loss and could not extricate itself.
In 2023 and the first half of 2024, it recorded a net loss of 1.719 billion yuan and 1.001 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, with a year-on-year increase in losses of 822.83% and 70.54%, respectively.
This is also the sixth consecutive year that the company's net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses has decreased year-on-year.Severe Retraction
This also indicates that each round of speculation on China Communications Property lacks fundamental support.
In fact, after the first two rounds of speculation, China Communications Property saw the largest retraction of 67.93% and 69.97% respectively.
The retraction amplitude is getting larger each time.
If you dare to follow the trend and drive up the stock price, major shareholders (institutions, speculative capital) will dare to sell their shares to you.
This time will not be an exception!