**Morning Briefing:**
Macro:
At the National Development and Reform Commission's (NDRC) press conference in September, it was stated that efforts will be accelerated to implement policies effectively, focusing on five key areas: speeding up the implementation of key reform tasks, increasing the intensity of macroeconomic regulation, deeply implementing strategies to expand domestic demand, accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system, and increasing efforts to safeguard and improve people's livelihoods.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week fell to 219,000, a four-month low, with expectations of remaining unchanged at 230,000. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending September 7th were 1.83 million, a decrease of 14,000. Lebanon's delegation to the United Nations stated that according to preliminary investigations, explosive devices were implanted in communication equipment before it arrived in the country and were detonated by sending electronic information to these devices. Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon, marking one of the largest bombing operations since October last year and indicating a significant escalation of conflicts in the Middle East.
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U.S. stocks opened high and continued to rise, with all three major indices closing higher, the Nasdaq Composite up by 2.51%, the S&P 500 up by 1.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 1.26%. Among them, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new historical highs. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index up by over 4%.
International oil prices rose across the board, with the November U.S. crude oil contract up by 1.77%, at $71.12 per barrel. The November Brent crude oil contract rose by 1.52%, at $73.99 per barrel. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up by 0.5% at $2,611.7 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up by 1.36% at $31.105 per ounce.
Industry:
The Ministry of Transport and nine other departments jointly introduced several measures, aiming to further unblock bottlenecks in the transportation of power lithium batteries by 2027, ensuring the safe and stable supply chain and industrial chain of new energy vehicles and power lithium batteries. The measures propose to organize and carry out a leading enterprise cultivation action for the transportation of power lithium batteries.
Company:Wistron: The upstream Co-WoS supply issue has been resolved (TSMC), and our customers' weekly orders have a visibility of up to 52 weeks, also requesting capacity expansion. All expansion actions that Wistron will take are in line with the customers' (demand) pace. The demand for AI servers from CSPs or the enterprise sector cannot be met by the end of next year (supply shortage).
II. Outlook
9.20 - September LPR
III. Public Opinion Hotspots
Xin Chuang - Institutions say that the construction of Xin Chuang in key industries has gradually entered deep water, and key links in the Xin Chuang industry chain as well as related industry IT service providers are ushering in historical development.
Huawei Chain - Huawei's pure HarmonyOS NEXT is expected to release the official version at the end of September; Huawei's Connect Conference will be held in Shanghai from September 19th to 21st, 2024.
Mergers and Acquisitions - From the China Securities Regulatory Commission, under the support of multiple policies, China's capital market mergers and acquisitions are entering an "active period". Data shows that since May 2024, A-share listed companies have disclosed a total of 46 major asset restructuring projects, and 7 equity issuance type restructurings have been submitted to the China Securities Regulatory Commission for registration. Hot
BP Machine Explosion Safety Concept - According to the Japanese Current Affairs News Agency, on the local time of the 18th, a large-scale communication equipment explosion occurred again in Lebanon. Overseas BP machines are not only related to information security, supply chain security, technological innovation, and industrial upgrading, but also an important measure to ensure national security and stability. Hot

Artificial Intelligence - OpenAI released the latest o1 model, which has significantly improved the reasoning capabilities compared to the GPT-4 series models. Microsoft released Copilot Wave2, a new workflow in the AI era has begun. Hot
Real Estate Chain - National Bureau of Statistics: In the first 8 months, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.2% year-on-year; the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50BP, and the central bank is expected to follow the rate cut. HotIV. Hot Research Reports and Minutes
1. Key Strategic Operations for the Next 2 Days
[Opinion]
Domestic "deflation" accelerates, and the asset side deteriorates. Maintaining a significant rebound of more than 50bp in the 5-year LPR on the holding side, the "market bottom" will only appear.
"Right-side trading rate cut logic":
① If there is a 25bp rate cut in China in September, it is expected that the A-share market will usher in at least a 1-month rebound "safe period"; it is still necessary to wait for another 25bp rate cut in October for the upward trend to confirm the "hard landing" of the US economy (approximately after November).
② If there is a 50bp rate cut in China in September, it is expected that the A-share market will usher in at least a 1-quarter rebound "safe period" until the risk of a "hard landing" in the US economy is confirmed and even spreads.
③ If the rate cut in September is 25bp corresponding to investment style: switch from high-value, banks to small and medium-sized, oversold, low-value, and meet the expectations of exchange rate appreciation "growth and consumption", the switch position can be more than half; if the rate cut in September is as high as more than 50bp, the above can be fully switched to "attack".
④ If there is no rate cut or less than 25bp in September, market volatility may enter an "accelerating upward" channel, maintaining a "gold + innovative drugs" bottom position, banks